An early November opinion poll of the Eastern Shore’s 1st Congressional District finds voters trending to Republican candidates and sheds light on political divides. In contrast with statewide polling, likely Eastern Shore voters prefer Dan Cox (R) for Maryland governor over his opponent Wes Moore (D) by ten percentage points, 46% to 36%, in the race to succeed Republican Larry Hogan. The contest for the U.S. Senate seat held by Chris van Hollen (D) shows the incumbent trailing his opponent Chris Chaffe (R) by five percentage points 48% to 43%.  

Andy Harris (R) holds a lead of seven percentage points, 45% to 38%, over his opponent Heather Mizeur (D) in the race to represent the district in the House of Representatives. The Ballot Initiative on a Maryland Constitutional Amendment to legalize the use of Cannabis has overwhelming support, with 74% of likely 1st district voters in favor, 21% in opposition, and only 4% undecided.  

The poll, which has a +/-4% margin of error, also found that likely voters have the most trust in the Maryland State government with less trust local government and the least in the Federal government. Despite candidate Harris’s skepticism about the 2020 election, 79% of likely voters indicate they are confident in the Maryland electoral system.  

The poll illustrates a partisan divide over what voters consider to be the most important issues facing the district. While more than 93% of Republicans view the economy, taxes and inflation as an important issue, only 59% of Democrats share that view. In contrast, over two-thirds of Democrats view racial and ethnic inequality, abortion access and restrictions and climate change and the environment to be important issues while less than a third of Republicans share this view. 

The Eastern Shore Public Opinion Poll was conducted by Washington College Assistant Professor of Political Science Flavio Rogerio Hickel Jr. between October 28 and November 1. Hickel, who was recently named a 2022-23 Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) Public Fellow, is also an expert on voting trends within the Latinx community. He earned his Ph.D. from Rutgers University in 2016 and studies American political institutions, identity politics and public opinion. 

 In addition to understanding political attitudes among Eastern Shore voters, the survey polled residents to better understand how they engage civically through volunteer work, voter engagement, activism or philanthropy in an effort will provide reliable information regarding a range of citizen preferences to elected representatives, community leaders and the public. 

Midterm voters in five states will determine if they should join the growing list of places where recreational marijuana use is allowed, even as any use of the drug is still illegal under federal law.

Referendums to legalize recreational use of marijuana are on Nov. 8 ballots in Maryland as well as Arkansas, Missouri, South Dakota and North Dakota.

If approved, those states would join 19 other states and the District of Columbia in allowing use. The current jurisdictions account for about 44% of the United States population.

Though some Republican-trending states such as Montana and Alaska have lifted prohibitions in recent years, most that have legalized recreational use still tend to lean toward Democrats in state and national elections.

That could change this year, as four of the five states with legalization on the ballot — Arkansas, Missouri, and the Dakotas — have Republicans in control of both legislative chambers and in the governor’s office.

“We’ve seen a growing number of states in the middle of the country re-examining their marijuana laws,” said Mason Tvert, a spokesman for the Denver-based cannabis law and policy firm Vicente Sederberg. “This is really just the next step in the evolution of public attitudes toward marijuana policy.

“Generally, what we find is the more people hear about and learn about marijuana, the more likely they are to support making it legal and regulated.”

Adding more states that allow for recreational use provides the possibility that members of Congress from those states will support a fledgling industry and promote federal changes, Tvert said.

Criticism of ballot measures

The initiatives are not without their critics, even on the political left. St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones, a Democrat, said this week she opposed Missouri’s ballot measure because it would exclude Black business owners from the industry, the Missouri Independent reported.

Legalization advocates in Arkansas have also criticized that state’s ballot initiative for being too strict and not including expungement of previous offenses, the Arkansas Advocate reported.

But the trend since Colorado and Washington first allowed recreational use 10 years ago has been toward further legalization.

In Maryland, the legalization question is tied to cannabis reform legislation that includes expungement and community reinvestment opportunities, as well as a focus on racial equity within the cannabis industry.

As the industry has flourished where it is state-legal, it has developed an interest in expanding elsewhere.

“For-profit companies, they have an interest in getting in these other markets,” Beau Kilmer, the co-director of the nonprofit think tank RAND Corp.’s drug policy research center, said.

As more states adopt legalization, the model could shift, Kilmer added. Colorado and Washington “definitely set a precedent” for a for-profit model, but other approaches are possible, he said.

Places in Canada, for example, permit sales only through state-owned stores, which allows the government to set prices and strictly control what products and potencies are available.

“It’ll be interesting to see, especially as more conservative states start having more serious conversations about this, whether or not we see a middle option — the state store approach, for example,” Kilmer said.

Legislation in some states?

As cultural acceptance of marijuana use has increased, more states may opt to address legalization through the “traditional legislative process” rather than through ballot initiatives, Kilmer said.

That could leave space for other approaches beyond the for-profit model.

Each state that passes legalization has adopted varying regulatory approaches, Tvert said. But the model popularized by Colorado and Washington is generally seen as successful.

Former critic U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper, a Democrat who was the state’s governor when the ballot measure passed, said this month his concerns never materialized.

“I feel pretty darn sure now that this is such a better, in terms of almost every measure, such a better societal decision than what I grew up in, and it’s going to have huge impacts,” Hickenlooper said at an event commemorating the 10th anniversary of the state’s legalization.

“This model is something that has opened the door for all these other states. And I’ve personally gone and talked to either the general assembly or the governors in half a dozen states, and… literally, there is no attack, no anxiety that we don’t have a pretty good answer for.”

Social justice concerns

Last month, President Joe Biden pardoned thousands of people convicted of federal offenses and tasked his administration with considering removal of the drug’s Schedule I classification that puts it in the most severe class of drugs of abuse.

Efforts in Congress to legalize marijuana under federal law have stalled in the U.S. Senate, despite broad popularity.

That has left almost half the country living with a major difference between federal and state marijuana law.

As more states move to allow it, questions of fairness for those convicted of prior offenses have proliferated.

In his statement, Biden asked governors to follow his lead and pardon low-level marijuana offenders, a call that largely went unanswered.

In Missouri, Jones’ opposition stems from a provision in the measure that would cap the number of licenses for manufacture and sale of recreational marijuana and give first choice to parties that are licensed to provide medical marijuana — almost all of whom are white.

Legalization push to continue

When they’re put on the ballot, marijuana legalization measures typically pass, though often by relatively slim margins.

Tvert said there was “a good chance” each of the five states would pass their ballot measures on Nov. 8.

No matter the results, the momentum toward more legalization will likely continue, Kilmer said.

“Regardless of what happens on Nov. 8,” Kilmer said. “You’re still going to see a push for this in other states over time.”

By Jacob Fischler. Danielle E. Gaines contributed to this report. 

If the last 60 years of Maryland political history offer any lessons, it’s that Republicans win statewide races when they run toward the middle.

Charles “Mac” Mathias made the leap from the House of Representatives to the U.S. Senate in 1968 by playing up his moderate (some called them “liberal”) views. Former Rep. Robert Ehrlich won the governorship in 2002 by replicating the broad coalition that won him numerous elections in his working-class Baltimore County congressional district. And Larry Hogan focused like a laser on taxes and the economy — eschewing hot-button cultural issues — to win the governor’s mansion eight years ago.

Del. Dan Cox (R-Frederick), who is running for governor this year against Wes Moore (D) and three others, appears to have flung the winning GOP playbook out the window, according to a broad spectrum of observers.

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, Cox has made few efforts to reach beyond his base, leaving even fellow Republicans dumbstruck as to how he intends to overcome the built-in advantage that Democrats enjoy in Maryland due to their voter registration advantage.

In interviews, campaign appearances and debates, Cox pays lip service to issues like inflation, crime and housing affordability — priorities for many voters — but his policy proposals in these areas only nibble at the edges. His website devotes little space to them.

He appears far more animated when he is re-litigating the 2020 White House election, sparring with the state Board of Elections, or railing against “critical race theory,” “gender indoctrination” and “parental rights” — issues that resonate strongly with right-wing voters but are unlikely to get him over the top against Moore.

Publicly, Cox expresses confidence that despite what polls and pundits say, he can win. Some of his most fervent supporters are hoping for a miracle.

In an interview, former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele offered an unsparing indictment of Cox’s failure to capitalize on his primary victory over the Hogan-endorsed center-right candidate, Kelly Schulz. 

“He’s out of politics after this,” said Steele, who served as lieutenant governor under Ehrlich. The next logical move for Cox, who is closely aligned with Donald Trump, he said, will be to pursue the same opportunities sought out by many people in the former president’s orbit.

“What’s he going to do? He’s going to find a space on a very conservative talk radio program and grift. That’s what they all do,” Steele said. “(These) people aren’t serious. They’re not serious. This is all about, ‘How do I turn this s***-show of an act into money, into dollars for me? How do I make money?’”

“It’s bull,” he added. “To paraphrase Prince, this is what it sounds like when candidates can’t win.”

Len Foxwell, former chief of staff to Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) and a part-time communications professor at Johns Hopkins University, said Cox’s primary goal isn’t to succeed Hogan, it’s to “build a far-right brand that he can monetize after the election.”

“He’s made no effort whatsoever to expand his political reach, broaden his coalition, or bring new constituencies under his tent,” Foxwell said. “Rather, he seems content to double-down on his very narrow base of social and cultural warriors.”

Foxwell said Cox’s “aspirational model” appears to be another Dan — Dan Bongino, the hard-charging former Secret Service agent who made a successful pivot to punditry following a pair of unsuccessful campaigns in Maryland.

Observers see other signs that Cox may be driven primarily by what comes next.

Unlike Ehrlich and Hogan, who chose Black running mates who could broaden their appeal in a diverse state, Cox selected Gordana Schifanelli, an attorney from the Eastern Shore best known for right-wing social media attacks. She did not appear with Cox the night he won the Republican primary and appears to have been a non-factor in the campaign.

Rather than take a victory lap after his resounding primary win, Cox laid low, which meant he was effectively defined by Democrats and Hogan, whose rhetorical attacks were merciless.

Cox has failed to unite his own party, nor has he successfully courted key constituencies that often side with Republicans, like the state Chamber of Commerce, whose leader, Mary Kane, a former GOP nominee for lieutenant governor, recently sang Moore’s praises. Cox’s fundraising has been anemic and his press operation sporadic. (Calls from reporters frequently go unanswered and journalists have to cobble together Cox’s appearances from his Facebook feed.)

During an interview on Bloomberg on Tuesday, Cox made numerous false claims during a disjointed appearance on the influential “Balance of Power” program. He called Hillary Clinton “an election denier,” even though she conceded defeat within hours following her loss to Trump in 2016. He falsely said that Moore wants to shift $500 million from the Baltimore Police budget to social programs. And he referenced “my economic plan” to fight inflation, though his website lists no such plan.

Host David Westin was openly skeptical of many of Cox’s statements.

When Hogan ran for re-election against Democrat Ben Jealous in 2018, he pulled together a coalition of “Democrats for Hogan” to burnish his bipartisan bona fides. Gaithersburg Mayor Jud Ashman, one of the Hogan Democratic endorsers, said Cox’s strategy bears no resemblance to the governor’s. He called Cox’s harping on the 2020 election “disqualifying.”

“Whatever he’s doing — not to be too glib or anything — but it seems like a dead-man-walking situation,” Ashman said. “I have no idea is motivating him to make the moves that he’s making.”

A Republican member of the General Assembly from a GOP stronghold said “nobody” understands Cox’s approach to the race. “Everybody’s like, what’s he doing? We haven’t seen or heard from the guy, so everybody’s like ‘this race is over, just let it go.’” The officeholder spoke on the condition of anonymity to preserve their chances for re-election.

Steele’s criticism isn’t limited to Cox. He also blames his party for failing to take advantage of Hogan’s “successful” two terms to mount a strong gubernatorial campaign and perhaps pick up a couple county executive and legislative seats in the process. “We’re not in a position to do anything but get our asses kicked in two weeks,” he said, his voice rising. Steele briefly considered running for governor himself in 2021 but opted against it.

While criticism of Cox is flowing freely — and predictions of a lopsided election result are the norm — pollster Mileah Kromer thinks he may not be wired to reach beyond his base. Nonetheless, she sees little chance of his strategy being successful.

“This is clearly not the path to winning a general election vote,” she said. “The problem is that his values — and the things that he cares about and talks about — just don’t match up with what the average voter in Maryland wants.”

By Bruce DePuyt

Del. Brooke Lierman (D-Baltimore City) had the stage to herself Tuesday at Goucher College, at what was supposed to be a forum for the two candidates for state comptroller.

Her opponent, Harford County Executive Barry Glassman (R), couldn’t attend due to a family medical emergency.

Lierman said that if elected, she would make it easier for Marylanders to file state tax returns, modernize the comptroller’s office and improve customer service, because the office should function as a “taxpayer advocate.”

The Maryland State Bar Association co-hosted the forum and Lierman told the audience that she’s “the only nominee for comptroller who’s an MSBA member.”

The comptroller is the state’s tax collector and sits on various boards such as the powerful Board of Public Works. That board  — comprised of the governor, state treasurer and comptroller — approves state government contracts.

“I look forward to pulling people together regularly to understand what’s working and what’s not so that we can make Maryland the best state to live in,” said Lierman, a civil rights and disability rights attorney. “This is the beginning of the conversation and not the end.”

A Goucher College poll released last month showed 48% of those surveyed will vote for Lierman and 35% for Glassman. However, 16% of poll respondents were undecided.

Glassman is clearly hoping that a recent endorsement from The Washington Post changes the campaign dynamic. The newspaper’s editorial board described Glassman as “a traditional Republican” in the mold of Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and said the county executive would provide balance in Maryland, where Democrats dominate the legislature and are likely to win back the governor’s mansion in November.

“One-party rule in any state is a recipe for immoderation and poor governance,”

In an email to supporters this week, Glassman said the paper recognized his candidacy over Lierman, whom he described as “a liberal who is too liberal even for a newspaper of record.”

In a statement provided to Maryland Matters, he expounded on the idea.

“I continue to be recognized…as an experienced, non-partisan leader and the only candidate who has a chance to win and bring balance to Annapolis,” he said. “Just like Governor Hogan, I will be a moderate, common-sense check on one-party government, and I will never use the Comptroller’s office for overtly political or ideological purposes.”

If he wins, Glassman would become the first Republican elected comptroller since 1900.

But Lierman supporters are pushing back against the Post’s assertion that Glassman “rejects the GOP’s MAGA wing and would take a restrained approach to the office…” They point to several votes Glassman took during his 16 years in the General Assembly that suggest he isn’t as moderate as he would like voters to believe.

Between January 2008 to December 2014, he opposed measures to expand Medicaid, legalize gay marriage and increase the state’s minimum wage.

He co-sponsored a bill that would’ve required the state’s Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to establish a mandatory abortion survey system and report abortions to the agency. That bill was voted down in the Senate Finance Committee.

Glassman voted against the Firearm Safety Act of 2013, a bill that became law months after the Newtown school massacre. Glassman was one of seven Republicans in the state Senate who voted against a bill in 2013 that enabled the Maryland Stadium Authority to build new schools in Baltimore City. And he voted against the bill that authorized offshore wind energy off the coast of Ocean City.

As Glassman touts his moderation and his support from Hogan, Lierman is relying more on the man she hopes to succeed, Comptroller Peter Franchot (D), who has held the job since January 2007 but unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for governor in the July primary.

Franchot narrated a TV ad that Lierman began airing last week, quoting from newspaper articles that call her “diligent,” “detail-oriented” and “a hard worker who pays close attention to the details.” He also describes her in the ad as “the only comptroller candidate committed to protecting abortion rights.”

“We’re so excited to have Comptroller Peter Franchot on Team Brooke!” the campaign said in a fundraising solicitation that went out Wednesday. “If anyone in the state knows what it takes to be Comptroller, it’s Peter Franchot. And he knows that with Brooke as our next Comptroller, Maryland will be in extremely capable hands. He supports Brooke because he has seen her work around the state and knows she will bring bold leadership and excellent service to all Marylanders.”

Lierman and Glassman did not especially spar on ideological matters when they met during an online candidate forum earlier this month.

In the Oct. 6 forum, they answered nearly a dozen questions that included whether they agreed with the General Assembly’s decision in 2018 to strip the Board of Public Works of oversight on school construction.

During that discussion, Glassman said the state should work with counties on innovative ways to help expedite school construction projects.

Lierman, who would become the first woman to be comptroller, said she supports the current set-up. She did bring up Glassman’s vote against the Baltimore City school construction legislation.

Early voting in the general election begins Oct. 27 and continues through Nov. 3.

Voters can fill out mail-in ballots and drop them off at various locations, or drop them in a mailbox, where they must be postmarked by Election Day, Nov. 8.

By William J. Ford

To the surprise of many, the Washington Post has endorsed Republican Barry Glassman for Maryland Comptroller yesterday. The moderate GOP candidate is facing off against Democrat Del. Brooke Lierman in the November election.

Read the editorial here.