In 2004 and 2005, a total of 8,250,401 new Americans were born.  Millions of them, will be voting for the first time on November 5, 2024 to elect, among others, the president of the United States. 

From my  senior citizen perspective, the 2 years and 8 months since the 2020 election have been variably depressing, extremely weird and deeply concerning, They have included: the violent 1/06/21 insurrection,  a failed complex effort to overturn America’s democratic electoral process and on 1/20/2021, the first non-peaceful transfer of power in US history. What a contrast to those halcyon politics and elections of long ago.

More recently, a former US president and current 2024 candidate, has been indicted in 4 courts for 80+ allegations of criminal conduct. Some or all of the trials will be held before the 2024 election  Opinions on this litigation have contributed to today’s deep chasm between Americans view of the current health and viability of the United States and its future. 

The confluence of our sociopolitical seismic eruptions with the Covid-19 pandemic, severe global warming disasters, American domestic violence, the ongoing war in Ukraine and China’s belligerence to the US over Taiwan, lends something of an apocalyptic aura to the 2024 election season. And possibly reinforcing this more cosmic quality, is a  campaign theme introduced by President Biden when he characterized next November’s choice for American voters as between authoritarianism and democracy. 

And then there’s Social Media, blogs, chat rooms and special apps offering thousands of interpretations of all this for hundreds of millions of people, including many if not most, of first time American voters.  I’m sure some of them follow (on-line) the Federal Reserve minutes, the Congressional Research Service (CRS)  reports and  the Council on Foreign Relations publications. Probably, most don’t.

This large number of first time American voters confront violence, dysfunction, confusion, sharply divided opinions and beliefs, suffused with high emotions. Not to mention a former US president running in the 2024 election who’s facing an array of criminal trials and strongly maintains election fraud stole his reelection. And millions of Americans agree.  Some or all of this turmoil is no doubt present in their or their friends’ families, among peers and is inescapable on Social Media.

When I cast my first ballot, there were two dominant parties each with well known policy positions and attitudes towards governance. Easy and comfortable choices. If the 2023/24 political environment had existed then, I probably would not have voted. And I would guess this will be the decision of a number of new voters as well. Another possible option would be to maintain the peace and go with the family or friends’ flow. 

What follows is a description of the formidable puzzle of issues facing those among them who want to make independent choices, not affected by fear mongering, alternative facts and loud voices.  

Recent polling reveals large numbers of American adults already are or should be, in group therapy to address mass depression.  And many of 2024 first-time voters live with, are taught by, or work for or know, these people. The likely impact on their 18 year-old children, students, bosses or parents’ friends is to discourage them from voting.  Why bother trying to save a sinking ship?. Or maybe give it a shot.  

Miasma: Unwholesome or foreboding atmosphere 

Adult American Views on the State of the USA

Who? In danger of failing, Not in Danger, but Bad Problems

NYT/Siena College Poll 7/2023

But, What does all this Mean?

If I were a shrink, which I’m not, but just based on the results of this poll, I would vote for all Democratic male candidates, including their much more successful and optimistic current president, seeking reelection. His major Republican competitor is a former president, who describes the US as failing and himself as the only salvation. 

Also, on the Republican side, I was not surprised to find that the smallest member of the Party’s coalition (8%) called the “New Comers”,is the one with with the most young people (18-29); 59% are white and 18% Hispanic. They are solidly behind Mr. Trump and opposed to President Biden. 

The article goes on to describe them, surprisingly, as overwhelmingly in support of immigration reform and social acceptance of transgender people. Not exactly in line with the Freedom Caucus or the 52% of the Party, labeled either Traditional Conservatives (Rick Perry-like) or Right Wing (Ted Cruz-like).  

The  New Comers (Vivek Ramaswamy-like) are said to be deeply unhappy with the state of the country and 90% believe the US economy is poor.  They agreed they would support candidates focused on fighting the radical “Woke” rather than those targeting law and order. 

I have no idea what America’s first time 2024 voters will do. However, given the environment they now inhabit, I wish them God Speed. However, I do offer, for reflection, three quotes from two founding fathers expressing their views on future American elections. 

Alexander Hamilton: 

“American elections provide a moral certainty that the office of president will seldom fall to the lot of any man, who is not in an eminent degree, endowed with the requisite qualifications.”  

James Madison:

“The people will have the virtue and intelligence to select men of virtue and wisdom to lead their Republic.  If not, then Americans are in a wretched situation”

“Knowledge will forever govern ignorance; and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power knowledge gives.  Wherever there is interest and power to do wrong, wrong will generally win.”

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

I recently read an article about a state’s fresh approach to public schools and parental rights and started laughing.  My wife told me I should be outraged, not amused and said it just confirms my advanced age.  And she’s doubtless right. My much younger relatives remind me repeatedly that I don’t get it.  To which I silently think: “Thank God”. 

The year is 2023 and in this American state, elected legislators and their governor have passed and signed laws threatening districts with a $10,000 fine if they do not enforce the following legal requirement: visitors, students, teachers, staff and trans must use school restrooms corresponding  to their birth sex OR use a special one-stall facility. And there’s more.

Gender: 

• State law defines a person’s sex/gender by “…the external genitalia present at birth”.
• Parents must fill out a form that provides their child’s nickname or new name that doesn’t correspond to legal name, e.g. Rob is OK, but Roberta is not. However, in some counties, parents can give permission for their child to use Roberta instead of Rob.
• Teachers are not permitted to ask students what their preferred pronouns are. If one does,s/he can lose their teaching certificate.
• A new teacher in a county public school was told recently  how to address a trans colleague: instead of using Mr. Ms or Mrs, use “teacher” 

Sex Ed: 

• Before these restrictive state laws were passed, county school districts had some discretion over how and what was taught. 
• The state has now asserted superior authority over county districts sex ed and wants to review all curricula and materials.
• The state wants the sex ed message to be: “abstinence” 
• The state’s guidance on sex ed is that students must be taught that “…the male and female reproductive roles are binary, stable and unchangeable”.

Books:

• Any member of the public can challenge any book in a school library. The bulk of those books are about LGBTQ experiences or structural racism. “Romeo and Juliet” was challenged and briefly removed, because Shakespeare’s implication was the two had sex
• State certified media specialists review books in classroom libraries for appropriateness. .
• One county requires parents to fill out a “Media Access Form”.  The options for their children are: (1) Unrestricted, (2) Prevent access to (list) and (3) Access to Books: except those that have been challenged and reviewed (regardless of decision) 

After laughing at what seemed to me the absurdity of an intrusive government layering on bizarre rules about bathrooms, gender and sex, I began to think about their impact on students. It became clear that essentially, these law/regs excluded opportunities for students to be challenged, even shocked and ask questions, discuss issues with peers, parents and teachers and learn.  That’s what my friends and teammates did every day usually generating clashing conclusions and intense arguments that taught more lessons.  

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

Is your house hosting an unprecedented mob of persistent ants?  Ours definitely is. However, when the cats started complaining about ants in their food bowls and most irritating, in their cat box, I was told this problem had to be addressed and solved.  

The first facts I uncovered were not encouraging: colonies generally contain from 20-100,000 ants with a possible life span of 20 years.  And like humans, their general health and longevity can be influenced by their place, called caste, in the matriarchal ant class system.  Adult males live only a few days after mating with a female, but Queen Ants, the egg laying members of the colony, live the longest, even decades. Non-reproducing female Worker Ants spend their time serving the community and if food becomes scarce, it’s the Worker ants who will voluntarily stop eating.  No surprise, they usually die of exhaustion or malnutrition, in a few weeks or months.   

Reading further, I found ants are ectotherms and unlike humans, their body temperatures automatically adjust to that of their environment (within limits), no winter or summer wardrobes required.  

Is Global Warming the reason there are ant infestations like never before? Partially, but until Earth has moved further into the permanent heat wave,  the ants will adapt and continue spending time with us. However, when temperatures get above 120 degrees or below 10 degrees Fahrenheit, they will expire. So Phoenix, Arizona probably doesn’t have this problem. 

However, the series of 90 plus degree days we’ve been having dry up a number of the usual natural sources of water outside our houses. Moreover, it will deplete their food supply and cause them to venture outside their normal safe habitat and go where humans and animals congregate.  In these circumstances, ants will establish their colonies in or near human habitation to have better access to food and water. 

Why do we notice the ants? Because other insects don’t have the heat/cold tolerances the ants do and react differently. Termites find water by burrowing deeper into the ground, while Cockroaches already have their places staked out in our houses or offices. Neither, of them move in masses.  Thus, we see the ants, who are looking for our crumbs and the cats’ food and water.   

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County. 

The 13 American colonies/states during the Revolution and until the ratification of the US Constitution functioned in many ways, like independent countries. In fact, it was their legislatures – not the people – that approved the Constitution, as countries would a treaty. The residents of the 13 states were accustomed to identifying themselves by their state first and were jealous of protecting their local powers, and many still are.  

Thus, there were two principal positions at the Constitutional Convention: one wanted a stronger central government and the other wanted to retain their state powers against a weaker national authority. However, after their almost 13 year experience with the weak, dysfunctional Articles of Confederation, the  majority early on accepted a stronger national government. And the Virginia Plan provided the template. And then there is the directly related Constitutional debate over the “Reserved Powers” (10th Amendment: “The powers not delegated to the United States, nor prohibited by it to the states, are preserved to the states respectively or to the people.” )

However, the conflict over states rights, even after the Civil War reconfirmed the dominance of the Union, continues in 2023. States pass legislation on important issues, that differ from one another, the national consensus and/or the Federal Constitutional position. The states rights’ squabbles now play out in the Federal court system.   

Another vocal group  in 1787, were those who feared that strong states or the powerful Federal Government could crush individuals.  Thus, the Bill of Rights , the first 10 Amendments to the Constitution, were added prior to ratification, giving the Feds authority to protect personal rights, e.g. to practice their religion, to assemble, free speech etc. 

By the middle of the 19th Century though, it became clear that a central government that did nothing regarding individuals participating in the US Congress and/or Executive Branch, was allowing a small minority of very wealthy people from Southern states, to take over the country and threaten to control the people. Thus, Abraham Lincoln and U.S. Grant and millions of Americans learned, at great cost) what their government could do, to impose equal rights before the law, equal access to resources and more, that were embodied in the 13th, 14th and 15th Amendments. All of which strengthened the hand of the Federal Government. 

Similarly, early in the 20th Century the damaging impact of industrialization expanded the role of the Central Government again, to protect individual workers from abuse by wealthy owners of giant corporations.  Once more the Feds stepped in, this time to rein in industrialists and to regulate how they did business. The strategic goal was to level the economic playing field. 

In the 1930s, following the catastrophe of the Great Depression, the FDR Administration added more missions to the USG. It created organizations to provide work for millions of unemployed Americans and ultimately introduced a basic social safety net. 

As we move through the 21st Century, most, but not all, Americans accept the evolving list of USG tasks and the authority of the Federal Government to continue to protect equal rights, to maintain a more or less level economic playing field as well as an effective social safety net. 

None of us knows specifically what comparable existential events will challenge us in the decades ahead, but the ability of our Federal Government to address them successfully, as in the past, should be a given. 

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

I doubt I’m the only one in the nine counties, who remembers when voters were hyper motivated to write letters or fax their members of Congress about health care,  wars, civil rights or to join demonstrations or sit-ins or wave campaign signs. 

In the 21st Century we text, join chat rooms or at times grab a gun and vest and march off to protect or protest brunch drag shows or library readings.  This Halloween, a man firebombed a Tulsa doughnut shop because it had hosted a drag event.  I admit, over the years I’ve enjoyed and laughed at drag performances. However, straight male adults are not the issue. It’s the T” in LGBTQ,  i.e. transgender and the kids.  

In the last quarter of the 20th Century, the US population began to accept L & Gs as normal friends and colleagues or just regular people.  Federal and state laws were passed prohibiting discrimination based on sexual orientation; some more recently, added transgender.  A movement emerged later, led by gay parents and others, who wanted their children to gain a broader understanding of human sexuality. Thus, was launched family-welcoming drag shows and book readings in schools and libraries, aimed at exploring sexual diversity.    

And then circa 2015, sex and children became politicized in different ways: most prominently by school boards who began banning exposure, by younger students, to sexual subjects in class rooms,  as well as books addressing them. At the same time, the popularity of drag performances by restaurants and other commercial venues became widespread, profitable attractions.  However, before the recent midterm elections, higher volume rhetoric against drag shows and readings with children in the audience , sharpened. 

Senator Marco Rubio said these events “indoctrinate children;” and Governor DeSantis pronounced them part of a “disturbing trend”. The president of the Family Research Council accused the people who organized a drag reading at a Montana zoo, of “…targeting our children and grooming them (to decide to become LGBTQ).  

Several states are considering legislation to prevent transgender people from participating in pubic shows, regardless of the nature of the performance. Other states are focusing on laws to prevent drag shows or in Texas to stop minors from attending drag performances.  The Texas draft text defining drag is quite comprehensive:  “…any show in which a performer exhibits a gender identity that is different than the performer’s gender assigned at birth, using clothing, makeup or other physical markers. 

I’m told, whether it’s true or not, that President Nixon introduced abortion as a campaign issue, during his reelection bid. In retrospect, I wish he had stuck to law and order and civil rights and violence in politics, following the assassinations of Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy. 

My grandchildren consider me hopelessly antique, but that’s OK. I felt the same way about mine, but  just didn’t tell them. 

In December 2022, I wish our politicians argued and railed about national and state issues related to substantive, problem-solving and legislation aimed at serving the commonweal.  However, my grandchildren are doubtlessly correct, I am terminally oriented to the past. 

Transvestic Fetishism refers to drag performances or readings.  

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

The current turbulent social, political and moral environment in which our representative democracy exists,  threatens, I believe, the resilience of our Constitutional democratic principles and institutions of governance. The extreme seriousness of the threats arises from: (1) the gradual acceptance by mainstream Americans of violence as a political tool, (2) the easy access to private armed militias and (3) the ubiquitous presence of social media and customized apps. The latter enable plans to be made, actions coordinated and operations to proceed in real time with instant communications involving hundreds of people in real time. 

The violent January 6, 2021 insurrection and assault on the US Capitol revealed clearly that America’s long tradition of democratic elections, followed by peaceful transfers of power, can no longer be assumed. Two of the largest armed militias, Oath Keepers and Proud Boys, actively engaged in the attacks. Stewart Rhodes, founder of the Oath Keepers, was just convicted in Federal Court of Seditious Conspiracy. 

Why the US Capitol? Because on January 6, 2021, members of both Houses of Congress were assembled in the House Chamber, led by the President of the Senate (US Vice President), to take the ceremonial final step in the election of a US president: the acceptance of the certified state votes of the Electoral College.  However, a group of senators and House members used a perverse interpretation of the enabling legislation (1887 Electoral Count Act), to challenge some of the certified state tallies. Their likely purpose was to overturn or delay the confirmation of America’s new president. 

The partisan mob broke into the Capitol building around 1PM on January 6th and then forced their way into the House Chamber. Minutes before, the Capitol Police and Secret Service, had led the  members of Congress to protected locations. Once the Capitol was secured, hours later, the Congressional deliberations resumed circa 8PM and early on January 7, the electoral votes were accepted and Joe Biden became the 46th President of the United States. 

To prevent a future misuse of the legislation, a draft amendment to the 1887 Act will be introduced and voted on by Congress, in December 2022.  

Deeply unsettling as well, were the 2 years of false claims in courts and elsewhere, that the 2020 Presidential Election was a fraud.  It is estimated that as many as 18 million Americans believe and support these lie-based assertions. This extended mass citizen effort to reverse a presidential election is unprecedented in American history. It  reflects a sad fact:  past generations of Americans’ ingrained acceptance of and participation in, our Constitutional democracy, is no longer predictable. 

And violence has become part of today’s deeply divided political reality. 

Does Something need to be Done? 

In my opinion, Yes. 

Anyone who has built or remodeled a house, knows that many licenses and inspections are required. And if there’s a problem with the work or the licensing, there’s a state commission or the courts to appeal to for redress. 

However, political parties and their successful national candidates are elected to powerful positions, from which they determine the future of 330+  million Americans. But, unlike roof repairs, this  immensely important process and its participants are essentially unregulated. There are no comparable (to roof repair) standards of competence or performance and no means easily available to voters, to appeal violations, even if there were any regulations..  

There is one exception: candidates and their campaign committees must submit to election boards at the state or national level, multiple reports of money’s received, from whom (with addresses) and how spent. However, corporations and unions (SCOTUS 2010: Citizens United vs FEC) can contribute, possibly anonymously, unlimited amounts to PACs and political parties. 

The following are suggestions based on vulnerabilities identified over many decades, particularly the last ten years.  Some may be politically impossible, but they are offered for consideration and comment. 

• • Vote Count Act – Congress during their December 2022 session passes the amendments to the 1887 Vote Count Act.
  • Federal Election Commission – The Federal Election Commission is substantially strengthened and given an expanded mandate. Current commission has six members, 3 Democrats and 3 Republicans, a prescription for dysfunction.  The Commission in recent years has been tied or absent a quorum frequently.
    
  • Technology and Security – 
  • The Federal Government should provide the same safe computers, software, and election security to all the states and territories for all general elections.
  • Note: Art I, Section 4 of the Constitution: (1) The times, places and manner of holding elections for senators and representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by law make or alter such regulations, except as to the places of choosing senators.

• Presidential/Vice Presidential Elections

• • • The popular election for the president/Vice President should be take place separately from the general election for members of Congress and for state and local positions. The selection of the most powerful  executive in the US Government and his/her understudy, are far too important to be included in the  confusion, even chaos and inefficiencies of the much larger general election. It should have customized procedures and reinforced protections. 
    • Note: The Constitution sets out no description of the process or timing for the popular election of the president and vice president. It does provide detailed guidance for the Electoral College.  

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

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“We may also suspect that they (majority opinion) suspected that emergency powers would tend to kindle emergencies.” Supreme Court Justice Jackson  (Youngstown Sheet & Tube Co. v. Sawyer 1952)  decided President Truman did NOT have the power to take over US steel companies.

Few Americans outside a gaggle of scholars, Constitutional law savants and national security buffs could possibly be familiar with the easy availability US presidents have to broad “dictatorial” powers. They have been drawn on by chief executives throughout US history, usually sparingly, but sometimes not. Last year’s January 6, 2021 insurrection and assault on the US Capitol generated, for different reasons, considerable attention to them.    

Wanting to learn the reality and extent of these powers, I did some research. What I found was startling. The President can do virtually anything, if s/he words it right. In past years,  Presidential applications of these authorities have at times, seriously, even severely affected the lives of numerous Americans. And appeared to others then, to contradict citizens’  traditional beliefs in their Constitutional and statutory rights and privileges. 

In general, Americans and our political leaders have successfully relied on the probity and moral judgment of our Chief Executives to avoid misusing these literally extraordinary, latent powers. There have been a few exceptions. 

However, we’re now in a somewhat distorted political environment featuring personal vitriol and at times, brutality. it seems prudent to understand the nature of these very potent presidential action-options when an increasing number of  Americans believe violence is acceptable to correct even false assertions of political wrongdoing. These conditions, unless countered, could worsen and lead a president to draw on these powers. 

Martial Law

What does it actually mean?  Simply put, it refers to those times when an American region, state or municipality or the entire country (only once, during Civil War), is placed under the control of military forces. Both the President and Congress have the authority to impose martial law, because both can assert control over national guard units. And in the case of the President, over Federal Forces as commander-in- chief. There are some constraints (Posse Comitatus Act -1878), but Congress has given considerable latitude to the White House. Governors, within their state borders, can also declare martial law.

In the United States, martial law has been imposed infrequently over 2 plus Centuries (68 times) usually in times of war, public unrest/conflict/violence or in cases of natural disasters. Some examples: New Orleans during War of 1812,  the Great Chicago Fire (1871), the San Francisco Earthquake (1906), the Omaha Race Riot (1919) and the  West Coast Waterfront Strike  (1934) and after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (1941). 

And more recently, to enforce Federal school integration laws in Little Rock ,Arkansas (1957) and to counter violence in the Cambridge, MD. racial riots (1963).

Habeas Corpus and the 5th Amendment 

Conceptually, the declaration of martial law is tied to the suspension of the Constitutional right of Habeas Corpus (Art. 1, Sec. 9) , guaranteeing US citizens, a hearing and trial upon lawful arrest. Section 9 states this right “…will not be suspended unless when in cases of rebellion or invasion, the public safety may require it.” 

The most egregious example of misuse, occurred in 1942 when President Roosevelt issued executive order #9066 suspending 120,000 Japanese-Americans protection under Habeas Corpus and the 5th Amendment.  The latter holds  that: “No person shall be deprived of life, liberty or property without due process.”  The last Japanese Americans were released from US internment camps in March, 1946. 

Some commentators also include President G.W. Bush’s introduction of a torture program after the 9/11 attacks,  in this category of excessive use of these powers.. 

Emergency Presidential Authorities

During the late 18th, 19th and the early 20th Centuries, Congress passed laws giving the president (Executive Branch) considerable flexibility of action when confronting military, economic and labor crises. Prime among them, is the 1807 Insurrection Act that allows the president to deploy Federal troops either upon the request of a state governor or legislature, to stop an insurrection within their borders. Or if s/he believes it is impractical to use normal courses of action, Federal forces may be used to suppress: “insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy that impedes the course of justice.” Last Century, these legislated powers became more operationally formalized with the passage of the National Emergencies Act, requiring the president to declare a state of National Emergency before drawing on them. Once invoked, chief executives over many years seldom terminated them. One example, President Truman’s use of the National Emergencies Act (1950) – Korean War -was still in force, and was used during the Vietnam War. 

These Emergency Powers address more than the military and can include agricultural exports and the validity of public contracts. Curiously, there is no requirement that the powers used, be related to the rationale behind the Declaration of a National Emergency. And there are other laws that allow the Executive Branch to take extraordinary action under certain conditions, without a declaration of emergency.  It’s complicated.

Cyberspace, the Communications Act of 1924 and Twitter

In 1942, Congress amended the Communications Act to give the president the authority to close or take control of “any facility or station for wire communications”, upon his proclamation “that there exists a state or threat of war involving the United States.” Finding a “threat of war” in 2022, is not a problem.

If Elon Musk proceeds to liberate Twitter from any constraints and President Biden or his successors decide as President Trump did, that the “…search engines were RIGGED to serve up negative articles about him”, maybe Musk or other big internet companies should  become concerned about a possible application of Emergency Powers, including a 21st Century reinterpretation of the Communications Act.  

On November 8, 2022 the Midterm Elections will take place across the United States and determine the composition of the Congress, the occupants of various governors’ mansions, state legislatures and multiple local offices. 

For weeks, media commentators and multiple social media platforms have been reminding Americans of the increasing levels of politically related violence and last year’s January 6 insurrection. Many candidates have been asked:i “will you accept the results of the election, if you lose?” The absence of a loud YES from many has led to speculation that accusations of Voter Fraud will surface again as they did in 2020, and lead to similar instances of  mob violence.  

And then on October 28th, the husband of Speaker of the House,Nancy Pelosi, was viciously attacked in their San Francisco home by a hammer-wielding man yelling “Where’s Nancy?”

None of the foregoing has anything to do with the presidency or the incumbent’s special powers. True, but the current political atmosphere is infected with hatred, anger and a growing fear or  anticipation that more violence will erupt following November 8th.  Absent, some “deus ex machina”, it is unlikely all popular political attitudes will substantially moderate before the 2024 Presidential Election. 

And who knows how a new president will view these dormant extraordinary powers after January 20, 2025? 

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

Recent media attention has focused on China’s military actions and threats against Taiwan and its general bellicosity towards both Taiwan and the US. Some Western and all Chinese commentary blame Speaker Pelosi’s brief trip to Taipei as the provocation and also a violation of the “One China Policy”. Beijing also believes that the West’s continuing refusal to recognize Beijing’s right to recover Taiwan (considers it a lost  province), fully justifies its rhetoric and military actions. But War?

Xi’s likely near term motivations: (1) remind the globe the PRC is a super power, (2) distract unhappy Chinese from the increasing economic and Covid lock-down problems as well as from (3) the tighter control Xi is slowly exerting over them and their lives. Younger Chinese now project a  growing militant nationalism as Xi absorbed Hong Kong and militarily pushes China’s claims on Taiwan.  His mantra  “America is declining, China is rising” continues to feed these feelings.  

Xi is applying to Taiwan, a strategy similar to Putin’s against Ukraine: face it with an overwhelming military force, calculating Kiev/Taipei will be cowed into submission. It didn’t work for Moscow and I doubt it will succeed for Beijing. The question becomes: will Xi decide to invade Taiwan as Putin did Ukraine?

The Hong Kong Precedent:

In 1997 the UK transferred sovereignty over Hong Kong to the PRC, ending 156 years of its colonial status. Great Britain had conquered Hong Kong in 1841 during its Opium Wars with China.  However, the 1997 agreement also contained Beijing’s acceptance of a 50 year transition period, during which Hong Kong’s government would be democratic and would follow a rule of law protecting individual rights. This arrangement was labeled “One China, Two Systems”.   

However, Xi’s patience did not extend to 2047 when the 50 year two systems approach would have naturally ended.  Thus, starting in 1919 he forcefully put down Hong Kong residents’ frequent large,  demonstrations protesting Beijing’s attempt to impose a draconian national security law. In August 2022, Beijing directly, totally controls the former colony, over which it received sovereignty in 1997.  

Xi unilaterally abrogated the 1997 agreement with London, generating loud objections from the West and Taiwan.  As a consequence, Hong Kong’s long standing role as Asia’s financial hub, is ending.    .

How Legitimate is Beijing’s Claim to Taiwan? 

Taiwan’s legal situation is quite different from Hong Kong’s because Chinese sovereignty over Hong Kong was not in question after 1997.  However, China ceded its Taiwan sovereignty to Japan in 1895. 

In 1945, Japan surrendered to the US and its Allies, ending WWII, but the documentation left the issue of  who “owned” Taiwan, unaddressed. At the time, American Forces occupied the island. Later, the Truman Administration invited its wartime ally, Chiang kai-shek, then the Chinese leader, to administer Taiwan, but unaccompanied by a legal transfer of Taiwan sovereignty to China. 

The PRC holds that it was implicitly made, which would have required the US to have claimed sovereignty over Taiwan when Japan surrendered, which it never did. 

If China wasn’t a credible military threat to Taiwan, Ukraine and Russia would continue to monopolize international news. However, most of the 23 million Taiwanese, are strongly opposed to and willing to defend against, becoming citizens of Communist China.

The following historic chronology traces the 500 year sequence of shifting sovereignty over Taiwan.  My opinion only, but China has a very circumstantial, but not a convincing legal case, to support its assertion that Taiwan is rightfully part of China.  

Taiwan: Chronology

• 13th to early 17th Century:

• • • Taiwan “discovered” by Portugal (called it Formosa), 
    • Colonized by Dutch, lesser extent, by Spanish.
    • 1683, China’s Qing Dynasty conquered/absorbed Taiwan’s Southern region into its empire.. 
    • Various Chinese dynasties ruled it until 1895.  

• 19th & 20th Centuries

• • • China lost first Sino-Japanese War and ceded Taiwan to Japan.
    • Japan ruled Taiwan until 1945 when it lost WWII to US and Allies. 
    • Washington asked WWII Ally, China (then under Chaing kai shek) to administer Taiwan.
    • 1949 Chiang lost Chinese civil war to Mao and  Communists, moved government and contents of national museum to Taiwan. 
    • Until 1979, US dealt with Chiang and his Kuomintang Government, not Mao and his successors as the legitimate diplomatic representatives of China internationally.    
    • 1972, President Nixon first US President to visit Communist Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC).
    • 1979, US established full diplomatic relations with PRC and recognized its sovereignty over China, but no mention of Taiwan.  
    • 1980s democratic reforms in Taiwan.
    • 1995 first democratically elected President of Taiwan.

• 21st Century

In 2022, Taiwan’s economy is thriving and features a major global microchip manufacturing sector. It has a large, well educated middle class and a functioning democracy equipped with police and national security forces.  An observer might sensibly ask why Taiwan doesn’t just declare its independence.  The answer: it might drive Xi to actually invade the island, and lead to a wider Pacific war.  This is a fear shared in Taipei, Washington, Tokyo, Canberra and Seoul 

Will the PRC attack Taiwan?

Unlikely in the near term, i.e. 1- 2 years, despite the fact the PRC in 2022 bears no resemblance to the country Nixon visited 50 years ago and appears competent to do so.  It has a number of billionaires, a large, well educated middle class and a nuclear armed military. It’s GDP is second only to America’s and it is an industrial power house with a huge export market.  But, it has problems.

Economic Issues:

The looser domestic grip Xi’s immediate predecessors allowed, which welcomed foreign investment and international businesses, is chilling in the wake of Beijing’s support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, his efforts to control multinationals combined with his expansionist actions in the South China Sea and military threats to Taiwan, have created an unpredictable economic/commercial environment.  The result: a number of foreign firms are moving their production facilities and jobs out of China.  

Pandemic:

The Pandemic has killed millions of people and substantially disrupted global trade and economies. China’s zero Covid policy has exacerbated the pain in China through massive lock-downs of large cities, citizens restricted to their homes, fences erected around apartment complexes and closure of factories, banks and other businesses.   Xi’s Zero Tolerance Covid policy clearly evidences his objective of creating a highly concentrated, strong man rule.  

Conclusion:

To repeat, I do not believe Xi will invade Taiwan unless something unexpected occurs, e.g. a referendum is held and Taiwan declares its independence or North Korea sends missiles into Seoul,Tokyo or Guam and the US retaliates or a major political or economic or natural disaster occurs in the US, absorbing Washington’s attention.  

The reasons are the following: (1) The US and the West have not shrugged their shoulders at China’s militant moves as they did when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, possibly emboldening Putin; (2) the Chinese military has never fought a full scale war, whereas the US is seriously battle hardened and very experienced; (3) the Chinese people have a lot to lose now if the PRC goes to war. Xi does not enjoy an unassailable power position comparable to Mao’s or Stalin’s. Thus, he cannot be totally confident the public won’t challenge him should body bags and huge economic demands to support a war, arrive. Such an eventuality could encourage another competing power clique to replace or remove him and (4) Xi doesn’t appear to be irrationally obsessed with recreating some earlier, larger Chinese empire.  

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.